Why is Singapore the BEST place to stay to survive Peak Oil?

[GoldBull5000]

I meet a lot of people who ask me why I came to Singapore. My standard answer is for tax planning purpose.

In reality, I migrated to Singapore 4 years ago because of the implication of Peak Oil. You can find out more about Peak Oil in the energy folder.

Of course you would be wondering why Singapore is the chosen place for me to get rich when the world is running out of CHEAP energy.

Here is the reason:



Let me explain:

1. to do well when cheap energy is running out for the mankind as a whole, you need to be militarily strong AND financially rich to get what you need, preferably by trade.

2. to do well when overall economy becomes unstable, you need have a strong leadership with longterm vision for it's people. And the people have to have the blind trust in the leadership's ability to guide them.

3. to do well in a global crisis like Peak Oil, you have to attract global capital flow, not enforce exchange restrictions. A strong local currency is mandatory.

4. Peak Oil is like the wolf at the door, it does not eat up everyone in the house, only the weak and slow. Singapore is a tiny city state, but it is strong and nimble. It will out run many other competitors. This place will emerge as one of the few gainers from Peak Oil over the next 20 years.

5. Last but not least, due to climate change, the place has to be physically safe from natural disasters and experience minimal temperature changes. The effect of global warming is strongest on the poles and weakest around equator.

There are many other reasons like my own skin colour, good education system, best public transportation network of the world, low taxation and cultural diversity etc. But the reasons above are the main points.

So if you are a foreign investor reading this forum and looking for a place to put your money and family, look no further, come to Singapore!

[rollerblader]

So far I see that global warming has been good for us as the wet moonsoon is driven south so that we experience cooler temp and more wet days. My observation could be wrong though. I wonder what would happen if daily (non rainy) temp went to 35deg C and beyond? It will be a daily pain rather than a seasonal one.

Jim Rogers himself quoted Singapore as a shining example in the prologue of the book "the financial reckoning".

The military might of Singapore is unquestionable. But the vulnerability of Singapore because of its size cannot be understated. All the agressor need is one successful attempt of attack in any of Singapore valued assets and investors would know the vulnerability of the country. We do not have another big City besides Singapore. Other countries around us is happy to assume our role and have the resources to copy our success. Perhaps all they need is their own LKY.

Dont worry be Happy, this is just another silly scare, ... our govt will take care of us. their handling of many crisis have been quite on the mark....or is it?

However, I second GB2K vote on Singapore though, at least until I retire.

[et2cetera]

Originally Posted by GoldBull5000

I meet a lot of people who ask me why I came to Singapore. My standard answer is for tax planning purpose.

In reality, I migrated to Singapore 4 years ago because of the implication of Peak Oil. You can find out more about Peak Oil in the energy folder.

Of course you would be wondering why Singapore is the chosen place for me to get rich when the world is running out of CHEAP energy.

Here is the reason:



Let me explain:

1. to do well when cheap energy is running out for the mankind as a whole, you need to be militarily strong AND financially rich to get what you need, preferably by trade.

2. to do well when overall economy becomes unstable, you need have a strong leadership with longterm vision for it's people. And the people have to have the blind trust in the leadership's ability to guide them.

3. to do well in a global crisis like Peak Oil, you have to attract global capital flow, not enforce exchange restrictions. A strong local currency is mandatory.

4. Peak Oil is like the wolf at the door, it does not eat up everyone in the house, only the weak and slow. Singapore is a tiny city state, but it is strong and nimble. It will out run many other competitors. This place will emerge as one of the few gainers from Peak Oil over the next 20 years.

5. Last but not least, due to climate change, the place has to be physically safe from natural disasters and experience minimal temperature changes. The effect of global warming is strongest on the poles and weakest around equator.

There are many other reasons like my own skin colour, good education system, best public transportation network of the world, low taxation and cultural diversity etc. But the reasons above are the main points.

So if you are a foreign investor reading this forum and looking for a place to put your money and family, look no further, come to Singapore!

Interesting, although I would think that Singapore would be less than ideal to weather Peak Oil. Here are some of my thoughts:

1. Militarily and financially strong. Modern weapon systems are heavily dependent on fuel. While we could keep others away for a while, dwindling supplies mean that we would have to be ultimately dependent on infantry and small arms to defend ourselves. Even if we could put half of our population to arms (1.5 mil out of 3 mil S’poreans – the other mil would probably return to country of origin), compare this to 5.5 mil eligible arms (out of 24.8 mil) from the north and 60.5 mil (of 234.7 mil) from the south. In warfare, quantity is a form of quality. Not to mention a whole other host of logistical nightmares. Moreover, our reserves (est. S$180 bil) would not attract the attention of suppliers as there are larger buyers.

2. Granted our leadership has been more far-sighted than most, along with a compliant workforce, it does not escape the fact that we are on a dinghy as compared to other supertanker-like nations which can still carry on in spite of its leaders (eg. USA).

3. Singapore unfortunately does not have many pillars to prop up the SGD. Much of it is reliant on the multi-nationals serving the larger ASEAN or Asia-Pacific region. Take that away, and our domestic market will become a backwater.

4. While Singapore may be a dinghy with a high-powered motor, it may eventually run out of gas as there is no hinterland to provide the depth or buffer to feed or produce goods for its people.

5. Perhaps this is true as we are geographically well sheltered. However, this does not mean that our neighbours enjoy this same benefit. Imagine millions of refugees pouring onto our shores if their governments, by neglect or purpose, are unable to provide them with the essentials. Or more disturbingly, point them to our shores.

Sorry if I sound so pessimistic but ever since I read about the possible disintegration of the world economy and telecommunications due to Peak Oil, I do not think people are really prepared and they would behave like a rampaging anarchic mob. This is amplified by the fact that we live near those who have shown a propensity to histrionics and violence, easily whipped up by jingoistic opportunistic politicians.

In all likelihood, Singapore may be ravished and then left to spend out its days as a pre-colonial fishing village.

[Goldwise]

Gold can be EATEN, but you still be hungry.
My mother was here in WWII, 700,000 people but still not enough space to plant food. Now we are 4,000,000...with no idea how to plant food.

[GoldBull5000]

Thanks for sharing your thoughts about Singapore and it's fate during Peak Oil.

Our natural instinct is to run away when there is clear and present danger. Most logical, the first thought of mine when reading about Peak Oil was to go to a place where the population density is low and natural resources like food and water per capita is high. The standard "nuclear bunker in middle of a nature reserve" sort of solution.

Then I went on to study past conflicts due to overpopulation and the safe spots during crisis. The most eye catching finding for me is the "eye of hurricane" effect.

Switzerland was the safe harbor in middle of the chaos during the WWII. Lots of Jew tried to run away from Germany even before WWII broke out. The only place safe for them on the Continental Europe was Switzerland. Albert Einstein was a good example.

Germany did not invade Switzerland because they needed a place to do business with their neighbors, including their war counter parties. I view Singapore as the Switzerland of the East this time around.

The army that backs Singapore is not just the half of the population here, it is the army of US, Japan, Australia and China. They need Singapore to function so that the Malacca Strait stays open. 80% of the liquid energy import to China, Korea and Japan flows through that narrow patch of water on the photo above. Before the world runs out of energy, Singapore will still have ample supply of EVERYTHING.

In crisis, goods and services gravitate towards the highest quality buyers. Singapore's per capita reserve is the highest in the world. A good example was during the latest bird flu when there was a worldwide shortage of Tamiflu. I remember that per capita supply of Tamiflu, Singapore was among the highest in the world.

Of course, if someone wants to invade here, the easiest thing to do now is a high altitude EMP blast by a small nuclear warhead. This would not kill anyone but will disable all electronic devices here. But what comes next? Take over Singapore without it's working infrastructure is useless for the invader. On top of that, can the invader hold this patch of land against counter attacks?

I believe that Peak Oil in its first 20 years will be an economic phenomenon. As energy gets progressively more expensive, those countries who have failed to catch up in putting a good infrastructure in place before peak will be hit hardest. It matters little how much natural resources you have in the ground. Zimbabwe is a good example.

Progressively, Peak Oil will go to the second stage of warfare. But that is still far away. Too many Peak sites are assuming global black outs and WWIII just around the corner. I am an optimist, I believe that not all is lost. If we can master Nuclear Fusion within 30 years, the issue with cheap energy will be solved. Of course, then there are still other issues like fishery depletion or water shortages etc.

In the longterm, we are all dead. My ultimate call is always: within the next 70 years, 6.5 billion people will die.

[et2cetera]

As a wit once said: "In the long run, we're all dead"

The way I see it, the die can fall either way - maybe a mixture of both? We may still be around but at the sufferance of others.

There will still be food but at high or exorbitant prices. Driving will then be truly a luxury for the rich. The rest will have to rely on public transport or start using bicycles. We might still have operational high-rise offices but with open windows instead of air-con (wouldn't that be a sight ). We might even have to use our own kinetic-electrical generators to power our PCs (imagine pedaling to generate electricity - hey, now I can tell my wife that I am exercising while surfing ). Maybe Bukit Timah or some of the golf courses can be converted to provide some farming space.

Well, we truly do not know but only speculate how a Post-Peak Oil will turn out but change us it definitely will.

[Goldwise]

Singapore is an IMPORTANT strategic choke point.
Some 30-50% of the worlds Oil and Trade goes pass here.
USA knows it,....so do China/Russia...

Don't be too shock if China/Russia nukes Singapore, If the American Aircraft carriers comes here for repairs after getting hit in the Taiwan Straits.

(Yes, we are one of the few places in the WORLD that can dry dock a Nuclear Aircraft Carrier

Nuclear Aircraft Carrier carry Strategic Weapons
...making them yummy Nuclear Targets.

In a USA v Russia/China confrontation, the first few moves would be to take out the Nuclear Aircraft Carriers to balance out the power,...
this includes the dry docks that repairs it.



The power of true power of USD lies in its Aircraft Carriers ...
not Gold...because if you make USA angry the Supertankers that
takes oil to your country is history.

Try running a country without electricity ...

[TMM]

Originally Posted by GoldBull5000

Thanks for sharing your thoughts about Singapore and it's fate during Peak Oil.

Our natural instinct is to run away when there is clear and present danger. Most logical, the first thought of mine when reading about Peak Oil was to go to a place where the population density is low and natural resources like food and water per capita is high. The standard "nuclear bunker in middle of a nature reserve" sort of solution.

Then I went on to study past conflicts due to overpopulation and the safe spots during crisis. The most eye catching finding for me is the "eye of hurricane" effect.

Switzerland was the safe harbor in middle of the chaos during the WWII. Lots of Jew tried to run away from Germany even before WWII broke out. The only place safe for them on the Continental Europe was Switzerland. Albert Einstein was a good example.

Germany did not invade Switzerland because they needed a place to do business with their neighbors, including their war counter parties. I view Singapore as the Switzerland of the East this time around.

The army that backs Singapore is not just the half of the population here, it is the army of US, Japan, Australia and China. They need Singapore to function so that the Malacca Strait stays open. 80% of the liquid energy import to China, Korea and Japan flows through that narrow patch of water on the photo above. Before the world runs out of energy, Singapore will still have ample supply of EVERYTHING.

In crisis, goods and services gravitate towards the highest quality buyers. Singapore's per capita reserve is the highest in the world. A good example was during the latest bird flu when there was a worldwide shortage of Tamiflu. I remember that per capita supply of Tamiflu, Singapore was among the highest in the world.

Of course, if someone wants to invade here, the easiest thing to do now is a high altitude EMP blast by a small nuclear warhead. This would not kill anyone but will disable all electronic devices here. But what comes next? Take over Singapore without it's working infrastructure is useless for the invader. On top of that, can the invader hold this patch of land against counter attacks?

I believe that Peak Oil in its first 20 years will be an economic phenomenon. As energy gets progressively more expensive, those countries who have failed to catch up in putting a good infrastructure in place before peak will be hit hardest. It matters little how much natural resources you have in the ground. Zimbabwe is a good example.

Progressively, Peak Oil will go to the second stage of warfare. But that is still far away. Too many Peak sites are assuming global black outs and WWIII just around the corner. I am an optimist, I believe that not all is lost. If we can master Nuclear Fusion within 30 years, the issue with cheap energy will be solved. Of course, then there are still other issues like fishery depletion or water shortages etc.

In the longterm, we are all dead. My ultimate call is always: within the next 70 years, 6.5 billion people will die.

I think Et2cetera is right. I disagree with your explainations for the following reasons:

1) We are living in a period of resource nationalism and peak resources. It's not about Axis vs Allies, nor about good vs evil. It's about personal survival. It's every nation for itself, every man for himself, in the fight over scarcity. Foreign armies will fight to protect their own interests, not us, even if it means illegally occupying our lands and waters.

2) What kind of business or trade would our neighbours want with us when peak oil hits the world hard? We have no food nor oil to offer to anyone. I agree with Westexas who commented in theoildrum, "In any case, I think that we are headed to a future where the primary international trade is bilateral trade between net food exporters and net energy exporters, i.e., food for energy and energy for food. It's not a good time to be both a net food and net energy importer.

3) You are assuming a gradual decline when you wrote "Peak Oil in its first 20 years will be an economic phenomenon". What makes you think this will be gradual? Peak oil websites have reported rapid oil decline rates in Mexico and the North Sea and I see no reason why Saudi Arabia could not go the same path if Matt Simmons is right about the critical situation in Ghawar oilfield. We can't say for certain if the decline will be fast or gradual, but seeing how you are a goldbug, I would assume you have the foresight to plan for the worst case scenario; planning to stay in Singapore during a plausible hard fast crash is a bad idea.

4) You did not mention food shortages. Modern agriculture and the food distribution infrastructure is highly dependent on oil. Food exporting nations have been in the news lately for curbing exports to ease domestic supplies. If for any reason (droughts, soaring oil prices, wars, etc.) crop yields take a hit, exporters will probably halt all exports and no amount of money will buy you any food.

5) Nuclear fusion will not solve our problems. The end product of nuclear energy is electricity, not exactly a direct convenient replacement for oil, which is the basis for petrolchemical products and liquid fuels, to which there is no ready alternative when it comes to powering motor vehicles, aircrafts and ships.

6) Sure we have strong leaders, in times of peace, that is. How will Singaporeans behave when TSHTF? How will Singapore leaders react then? Long term vision? What kind of long term vision does the government have when it comes to peak oil? Nothing significant that I know of. I did a search and found that "peak oil" was only mentioned twice in our .gov.sg government websites. Compare the frequency of the term "peak oil" in Australian and NZ websites and you'll see that they have been making much greater efforts than us to tackle peak oil. The last thing we need is a people who blindly trust and follow their government to solve their problems.

7) Singapore is small, low-lying island state. What makes you think we are safe from rising sea levels due to climate change?

[lowem]

Hi TMM, glad to see that you have made it here.

Guys, TMM is one of the foremost peak-oil bloggers over here in Singapore. So you'd better listen up

I am a long-time peakoiler and I am generally from the moderate camp, but events have moved somewhat faster than even many of us peakoilers have anticipated. We have been having the nagging worry, getting louder by the day, that the doomer faction may have been right after all.

Even some of the most wild-eyed oil super-bulls among us have been calling for $125 oil by the end of this year. We've just gone over $122 and $125 looks pretty achievable which is after all just around $3 away. If I recall right, last Friday we closed at $116.32.

There is no spare capacity to be had, and whatever they blew up in Nigeria recently, it seemed to be a pretty important facility ("heavily fortified", "3 well-heads destroyed", etc). The world's second largest oilfield (Cantarell, Mexico) is depleting at 18-20% per year, which means within 5 years or less it will be gone *kaput*.

One of the very first peakoilers around, Jay Hanson, said something like this : "with more money, you get more options". I have been working on this assumption, and no doubt, so has GB5K, and likely, people like Jim Rogers. But what happens when supply really does run out and no matter how much money you wave, there is no supply to be had at all?

The Philippines have just experienced this. They have bought up the entire American rice market last month and fell short (couldn't manage to buy 500,000 tons) and yesterday they cancelled the follow-up tender for 675,000 tons of rice - because there was about zero supply remaining. Sure they had the money - they had the entire government willing to throw money at the problem but there simply wasn't any sizeable supply of rice to be found.

That's what concerns me.

At first I was thinking "slow transition". Then I was thinking "gradual ramp-up".
Now, I am starting to think "fast crash". But really, I would very much like to be convinced otherwise.

I have been telling people how this was going to go exponential.
Of course, who would've believed that?

Well.

I think we're going exponential.