Singapore Government's (MINDEF) Policies To Tackle Peak Oil

[lowem]

By the way TMM, I don't think you expected much more from their reply, did you. Let's dissect it :

... the government is keeping a close watch on energy developments such as peak oil projections and is committed to develop robust solutions for the present and future energy needs of Singapore.

Doesn't tell us anything.

... more than 80% of our electricity today is generated using natural gas.

All Singaporean peakoilers know that.

... the requirement for these companies to hold 90 days worth of fuel reserves. If natural gas supply is disrupted, our gas turbines can switch to diesel that is stockpiled. MINDEF also ensures adequate fuel stockpiles for national defence needs.

I wonder what happens at the end of 90 days. We need fuel reserves that last for months and years, not days. A small collection of 4% refined uranium fuel rods can do that - all we need is the reactor (*smile*).

... LNG will also ensure that Singapore has security of supply through source diversification and enable the creation and introduction of competition in gas in the longer term.

Right, just in time for us to compete on the global LNG markets. Against big players including USA, Japan and our very own neighbour and present supplier Indonesia. Competition indeed. May the highest bidder win.

... attracting solar photo voltaic and bio*fuel players to set up in Singapore. From the perspective of meeting Singapore's energy needs today, renewable energy sources presently have cost and technology limitations.

Terrestrial solar is not enough. Further development of biofuels will only drive up the cost of food even more.

Besides developing new energy sources, it is also important that good energy conservation practices are adopted to reduce our consumption of conventional energy ...

Just like telling peakoilers something they don't already know.

[simontay78]

I had discussed with my friend related to the energy industry and he has optimism to the supply of natural gas from Indonesia but I still continue to worry after this news was shown to me by Lowem (Updated in my blog too)

Well, my friend said he is confident that this is a ploy to up the prices of the natural gas piped to Singapore in compensation for the current power outages in Batam....and it's not to really block the supply to Singapore as it represents a huge profit for Indonesia.

However, KPPU recently unfairly oust Singapore's Company "Singtel" out from their telecommunication sector and was forced to sell their shares...

And KPPU is again voicing their displeasure in this Batam Natural Gas issue.

This is my latest thinking...3 options

1. Increase price of natural gas --> higher tariff ($/kWh) in electricity for Singapore
2. KPPU Jawboned "legally" to Indonesia to prioritizes the natural gas supply to Batam first then Singapore creating daily black out in Singapore.
3. Simply claim accident from coming military exercise and sabotaged the pipeline.

Either way...we are done for.

[Novena]

Originally Posted by aurictaurus

Hi Novena,

You are correct, of course (and I may be one of the unwelcome when the time comes). The problem for Singapore between then and now is the massive mis-allocation of capital that will be mal-invested in the meantime to accommodate an island population of 6 - 6.5 million. Al those extra homes, schools, roads, water treatment plants, airport terminals, factories, shops and offices will form an enormous sunk cost that you will not be able to recover once they are surplus to requirements.

2 million extra people will require a near 50% build out over the existing infrastructure base. It will cost trillions. If you then row back to (say) 3 - 4 million population, about half of your gold-plated infrastructure assets will rapidly morph into wasting liabilities with insufficient throughput to justify maintaining them. They will rot in the sun.

When the Black Death burned through Europe, sweeping away 30% - 60% of the population, the survivors tended to abandon smaller settlements, hill farms and the like, to congregate in the larger towns and cities and re-settle on the most fertile productive bottom lands where farming produced the best returns.

In Singapore, resource constraints, much reduced standards of living and egregiously high energy costs are likely to lead to the abandonment of the higher floors in multi storey dwellings - people will populate up to (say) the 6th floor of an HDB or a condo tower if they cannot afford to maintain or power up the elevators, leaving the upper floors empty. Anyone fortunate enough to have a job will want to live close to work, the rest will tend to settle close to the park or pond they are farming for food. Residential areas with no economic or agricultural hinterland will just wither.

What I'm getting at is if this bleak future really is on the cards for us all, perhaps the capital expenditure planned to expand SG into an island mega-city could be better applied to re-orient the country for a post-peak world.

This is a one-shot deal: If your city planners bet the farm (that they won't actually need any farms) on such a huge build out which they intend to amortise over 20 years of economic growth, and then growth turns negative, they will have shot their bolt and may not have sufficient reserves remaining to mitigate the crash.

Hi Auric,

It all make perfect sense.. I began to scare a bit haha
well for the right reasons of course.. Thanks.. Im preparing my Post Peak Action Plan now..
Still...It's a comforting thought knowing Singapore is located between two resource rich nations like Indonesia & Malaysia.. imho

[GoldFinger]

I think a lot of the 2 million "extra" people would rather go back to their home countries when Peak Oil comes.

Singapore is fortunate enough that this is a tropical country...imagine having a winter season and a lack of natural gas.

Singapore is located between 2 resource rich neighbors, but geographical advantage does not always ensure commodities will always cross boundaries.