Why is Singapore the BEST place to stay to survive Peak Oil?

[AuAg]

Your know what I really think is when the world is really in a chaotic situation and is in peril, most (or all of us) of us here will not be able to see it. We will all be dead by then!

[GoldFinger]

Better do some research befor moving to Germany,
I think I have glanced upon some news reports stating that racism (nazism) is back in Germany

Also, it is confirmed that Singapore is one of the countries that will be affected by global warming. It could be reclaimed by the sea.

[questforion]

Originally Posted by TMM

Are you referring to this video? I didn't watch the whole thing, but this Baptist minister is not going to convince me without any hard evidence. It seems that his views are based on hearsay and conspiracy theories.

Chart of Alaska's oil production



In the short term, people who benefit are oil producers and investors. In the long term, no one as this would trigger massive political and social disruptions.

Inflation, according to the Austrian economists, is the expansion of the money supply and credit. If the increase in oil prices is the result of this definition of inflation, then yes it is a form of taxation.

When it comes to the price of oil, I believe demand and supply are the main drivers. Some economists attribute it to a weak USD. I believe a weak USD has contributed in some ways to high oil prices, but the underlying reasons are that demand for oil is outstripping supply and there is tight spare oil production capacity.

Hi TMM,

Thanks for taking the time to answer my queries. But i would like to highlight some doubts on your claim. You quote ".. is not going to convince me without any hard evidence. It seems that his views are based on hearsay and conspiracy theories. What hard evidence do you have contrary, to nail the fact that we are indeed in peakoil? Can information controlled by the elite be manipulated across the globe to make believe that we are really in peakoil? In real life example, are prices of gold not being manipulated in such a way that it goes opposite direction to the price of oil? If Paulson says that the US economy has reached its bottom and the media potray the market to be recovering, do you really believe? So what stops them for doing so for manipulating the mechanics of oil? People accept blindly to what they are fed with from the media that simple logic is considered conspiracy theory and is radical. I hope you can share your views on this.

We have seen how recession came into being from history books. From the great depression of the late 20s to now, subprime. And the main culprit is the very same entity that came into existence w/o invitation, the FED. And if the FED had cleverly devise a well executed plan to ripped the US people of their riches back in the 20s, what stops them now? I refuse to believe that these group of elite is dumb founded enough to not know what is coming to their shores.. HELL NO! I believe strongly that be it conspiracy theory or words coming out straight from the president's mouth or economist, we need to be analytical about it.

I believe inflation is a result of going off the gold standard; and unfortunately that is the price we the commoner and our future generation have to pay. It is true that price of oil is escalating due to a form of hedge against inflation, weak USD be'coz oil IS priced is USD and demand and supply. It is a weird world as it is now.

Truely
Questforion

[Tungsten]

There is a clear shortage of fuel supply in China now.
Currently the Chinese Government's direction to its state owned petrochemical companies is to divert more of the oil feedstocks to cracking more fuels rather than petrochemicals by-products to ensure the supply of fuels.
Both fuel and petrochemical are needed to power the Chinese economy.

[questforion]

Originally Posted by Tungsten

There is a clear shortage of fuel supply in China now.
Currently the Chinese Government's direction to its state owned petrochemical companies is to divert more of the oil feedstocks to cracking more fuels rather than petrochemicals by-products to ensure the supply of fuels.
Both fuel and petrochemical are needed to power the Chinese economy.

Hi Tungsten,

Would it be possible that China and other developing countries are internally in " peakoil " mode as they push towards being energy sufficient and not be victimized by the severe upside in oil prices? They very well know that their progress to become the next superpower; overtaking US; will be hindered by the erratic movement in oil.

I believe the Chinese government is trying their best to be energy sufficient. I would like to emphazise that it only means the gov wants to depend less on the US owned oil companies; who are always thinking of ways to have a level playing ground with China. This does not mean the gov wants to boycott the rest of the world on energy reliance. Look at how the US have encroached the middle east; installing puppet rulers only to have " blow back " effect e.g Iraq Saddam, The Shah of Iran. China knows too well what the US is capable of.. in the name of Oil.

I believe there is a propaganda going on in China by the US to discredit them. Starting from the economic turmoil, ill factory production toys to Tibetan democracy and now HFMD and EV71 outbreak in times where China is about the host the Olympics.Have you ever wondered why all this mess is happening all at once now in 2008? Conspiracy theory or facts? That is up to individual interpretation. But i do hope China will drop the bomb and dump all the US debts into the market so that we would have enough " FUEL " to blast the price of gold to the moon and back and 20X that!

Truely
Questforion

[TMM]

Originally Posted by GoldBull5000

While waiting for gold to catch up with oil price, discussing about PO is probably the most useful thing in this forum right now.

TMM, I went to your blog and read through some of your comments regarding the public policies of Singapore. I believe you misundertand the Singapore government's stance on Peak Oil.

I don’t see how I have misunderstood their stance. I believe our ministers are aware of peak oil, but I disagree with how they are tackling it.

Originally Posted by GoldBull5000

From what I have studied so far, Singapore is much further in preparing for Peak Oil than any other nations. But the preparation does NOT include informing the general public. And there are good reasons why.

“Much further”? And that does not include informing the public? How can we be prepared by not educating the public? If MEWR can set up a website to warn us about how vulnerable we are to climate change, why can’t they do the same with peak oil? Your argument is simply illogical and unsound.

Could you point me to some specific links and studies done by our government on the impact of peak oil on Singapore and how they plan to tackle it?

Originally Posted by GoldBull5000

In the last 40 years, the public has learned to blindly trust the leadership of the men in white. This mass behaviour should not and can not be unlearned overnight.

I don’t think Singaporeans are that “blind” and trusting anymore because of the internet and bloggers. Most Singaporeans are just apathetic and nonchalant: life is comfortable, why bother so much about esoteric and profound issues which have no immediate impact? Government has taken good care of us for the last 40 years, let them continue to do their job. That is until they realise we are trapped in a planet with a burgeoning and hungry population on the verge of an all out war over finite resources does the panic begin.

For the sake of argument, let's assume the public blindly trusts government (which I doubt), then it makes all the more sense that “the men in white” should tell us what to do about peak oil since everyone would “blindly” follow their solutions - problem solved.

Originally Posted by GoldBull5000

Let's look at what the elite here has done so far to prepare for PO:

All the points you mentioned (except for no.3) are really not direct responses to peak oil:

Originally Posted by GoldBull5000

1.invest heavily in infrastructure like MRT, the only other place in this regard comparable to Singapore is Tokyo

The plan for MRT was mooted back in 1967 – long before peak oil went mainstream. I seriously doubt our planners back then were aware of Hubbert’s 1956 speech.

Originally Posted by GoldBull5000

2.make personal transportation VERY expensive. Just imagine the same tax system implemented worldwide.

Our motor vehicle taxes were imposed to minimise road congestion, not to mitigate peak oil, although it does help on hindsight.

Originally Posted by GoldBull5000

3.invest in alternative energy sector. The worldwide largest biofuel plants are here, so are one of the largest solar panel plants in Asia.

Biofuels and solar energy are not direct replacements for oil. Their net energy returns and scalability are inferior to crude oil’s.

Originally Posted by GoldBull5000

4.making Singapore a better trading hub than ever before. Singapore has only one chance to survive Peak Oil, and that is through trading activities.

Singapore has always been a trading hub since Raffles' arrival. How is that a response to peak oil? What have we done to make Singapore a better trading hub? And how and why would we being a trading hub mitigate peak oil? As Westexas wrote in theoildrum, “we are headed to a future where the primary international trade is bilateral trade between net food exporters and net energy exporters, i.e., food for energy and energy for food. It's not a good time to be both a net food and net energy importer.” Singapore is both a net food and net energy importer.

Originally Posted by GoldBull5000

5.be the entertainment hub of the future. Even during the greatest crisis in history, people still need entertainment. Singapore will be the safest place on earth to get some controlled entertainment in the future.

I doubt if entertainment and tourism will be on most people’s minds when the middle class begins to have problems meeting ends meet. Seriously, the “greatest crisis in history” and you’re thinking of entertainment? Sheesh! Food and water are what comes to mind when your survival is at stake.

Visitor arrivals dropped 18.5% during the early 2000s recession, and average expenditure per visitor per day dropped 14.7%. That recession was mild compared to the great depression. If we are about to face the “greatest crisis” in history, how would investing in tourism and integrated resorts help us if visitations are likely to plunge?

Originally Posted by GoldBull5000

6. be the super money hub of Asia. Money always needs a safe home with zero taxation. Where else can you put your money safely in Asia?

How does being a money hub help mitigate peak oil? Money is highly mobile these days with a click of the mouse button. Investors and bankers can easily pull their money out of Singapore when the going gets rough. Besides, you’re a gold bug and I’d expect people like yourself to take possession of your own gold and secure them at home in such times of financial uncertainty. Is Singapore a gold haven?

Originally Posted by GoldBull5000

Ultimately, Peak Oil is about survival of the fittest. And the fittest human in today's world are usually the top 10% of the pyramide. How is this pyramide been measured? Against your wallet size, as always.

Who are the fittest? Those who are richest? Or those who have learnt to live within their local communities self-sufficiently without huge wealth disparities? In your view, to be rich is to have a fat bank account. That definition will soon be obsolete. As I mentioned in my earlier posts, money cannot buy you food when it is not for sale or available and food supply is a major concern when it comes to peak oil. The new definition for rich: those are self-sufficient and self-sustaining.

Originally Posted by GoldBull5000

Take Peak Oil as the greatest chance to get rich quickly, you can even turn the smallest amount of money into great fortune with the help of rising oil price and the futures market.

Your reasoning reminds me of the following sayings:

"Most [conventional] economists act as if a tree can grow all the way to the moon if you give it enough money.”

Kenneth Deffeyes: "They (economists) believe if you show up at the cashier's window with enough money, God will put more oil in the ground."

Likewise, you seem to think that we can “buy” our way out of peak oil.

You do not seem to get the entire perspective on peak oil. While this may be an opportunity to get rich (relatively speaking, since it's only paper dollars, not necessarily real happiness and sustainability), what many fail to understand is that peak oil requires a fundamental change in our worldview, a paradigm shift. It’s the end of the neoclassical growth model upon which industrial civilization is built. It’s not simply a matter of turning to alternative energy sources and continuing with life as usual. We live in momentous times at the end of the age of petroleum man, and this calls for unconventional solutions.

[TMM]

Originally Posted by questforion

Hi TMM,

Thanks for taking the time to answer my queries. But i would like to highlight some doubts on your claim. You quote ".. is not going to convince me without any hard evidence. It seems that his views are based on hearsay and conspiracy theories. What hard evidence do you have contrary, to nail the fact that we are indeed in peakoil?

Read this and all the links in it.

Originally Posted by questforion

Can information controlled by the elite be manipulated across the globe to make believe that we are really in peakoil? In real life example, are prices of gold not being manipulated in such a way that it goes opposite direction to the price of oil? If Paulson says that the US economy has reached its bottom and the media potray the market to be recovering, do you really believe? So what stops them for doing so for manipulating the mechanics of oil? People accept blindly to what they are fed with from the media that simple logic is considered conspiracy theory and is radical. I hope you can share your views on this.

I believe gold and silver are being manipulated thanks to research by GATA. Bernanke is trying to give the impression that inflation is contained. If you ask me, most people are ignorant of peak oil. So i'd say the "elite", if they really exist, are doing a damn good job of saying there is NO peak oil since there is not much news coverage, except for the occasional interviews with people like matt simmons and T. Boone Pickens. Heck, I don't even recall reading any detailed reports or commentary by local writers about peak oil in the Straits Times.

[Tungsten]

China have ambitious plans to be self-sufficient and move away from imported feedstock. it will be a uphill battle.

Now, Sinopec and CNOCC with several foreign partners are investigating alternative feedstocks for plant in China which may result in the materialisation of some of the proposed coal-to-olefins and methanol-to-olefins projects. The western part of the China is very rich in coal.
Also, China is now trying to secure as much energy supply now from Russia and gulf countries including Iran.
This is statregic for its long-term survival.

Originally Posted by questforion

Hi Tungsten,

Would it be possible that China and other developing countries are internally in " peakoil " mode as they push towards being energy sufficient and not be victimized by the severe upside in oil prices? They very well know that their progress to become the next superpower; overtaking US; will be hindered by the erratic movement in oil.

I believe the Chinese government is trying their best to be energy sufficient. I would like to emphazise that it only means the gov wants to depend less on the US owned oil companies; who are always thinking of ways to have a level playing ground with China. This does not mean the gov wants to boycott the rest of the world on energy reliance. Look at how the US have encroached the middle east; installing puppet rulers only to have " blow back " effect e.g Iraq Saddam, The Shah of Iran. China knows too well what the US is capable of.. in the name of Oil.


Questforion

[questforion]

Originally Posted by Tungsten

China have ambitious plans to be self-sufficient and move away from imported feedstock. it will be a uphill battle.

Now, Sinopec and CNOCC with several foreign partners are investigating alternative feedstocks for plant in China which may result in the materialisation of some of the proposed coal-to-olefins and methanol-to-olefins projects. The western part of the China is very rich in coal.
Also, China is now trying to secure as much energy supply now from Russia and gulf countries including Iran.
This is statregic for its long-term survival.

Hi Tungsten,

Thanks for cementing my believe with more facts. I hope China will achieve energy sufficiency in the long run. China is our only hope to stand against tyranny. But with Russia's signing of a nuclear pact concession with US in exhange for foreign policy and Iran dealing with Oil in euro and yen, i believe peak oil will have a new dimension and a new heights in price in due time. No matter how senile the reason is for going to a new war, it WILL be inevitable. I wonder why Putin had elected a new prodigee who wants to embrace US and open up their economic door this time.. something is just not right. In the world now, TRUST is like holding a knife on slippery fingers. Very powerful tool that can also lead to your own slaying.

Truely
Questforion

[gagoldau]

Originally Posted by GoldBull5000

Take Peak Oil as the greatest chance to get rich quickly, you can even turn the smallest amount of money into great fortune with the help of rising oil price and the futures market.

The ultimate purpose of getting rich is to be able to have the lifestyle you desire. But if the world run out of oil, no amount of gold will help you to run your car, unless you hire someone to push it.

There are so many out that who are hoping for some catastrophical calamity to strike so they can get rich from gold and silver. I am bewildered that these people do not understand that a world wide calamity will change their lives so drastically that they can't even imagine. You need a stable society to enjoy your riches just as you need health in order to be able to enjoy life.

Perhaps we had been too sheltered in Singapore that we cannot comprehend a chaotic world.